In 5 years,Timothy Richard Tebow will be regarded as perhaps the greatest College Football player of al-time, a revolutionary of the College Quarterback position, and an ambassador of college football. However, the question that we and many must seek to find an answer to in between now and five years down the road is will Tebow make a successful transition to a capable NFL starting Quarterback?
Here is our assessment: Positives:
Overall, if you looked at his productivity it is hard to argue that there is a better Quarterback. However, if there is one thing we have learned from Jason White, Eric Crouch, and even Akili Smith, it is that productivity doesn’t equate to the NFL level where players are mire athletic and smarter
Tim is by all accounts, a very intelligent young man. He is an honor roll student at the University of Florida. In addition, he is an adept leader, often seen rallying his Gator teammates
Tebow has a marketable face and his Christian background make him a PR machine. He is funny and has the ideal blend of confidence/humility needed to make it in the league. Tim doesn’t shy away from the spotlight, but is not consumed by it at the same time.
One thing often said of Michael Jordan is that “It’s not that he loved to win, it’s that he hated to lose” the same can be said of the competitive Tebow. His losses were often followed by promises of improvement and responsibility, leading to more victories.
He has the sheer will power to victory and is a hard worker
Negatives:
There are huge underlying problems in drafting Tim Tebow, however.
Tim has a little bit of a windup to his ¾ delivery and can at times double clutch the ball for rhythm. This can allow defensive backs a split second more to react to his throws. In addition, Tim has yet to employ very many pump fakes, and doesn’t look through his progressions at a high enough level yet. This can allow defensive backs to jump his receiver’s routes. Another concentration of those working with Tebow is his footwork. Tim frequently throws off balance when it isn’t necessary, usually when pressured and moving to the right. He needs to take time to get his back foot set and drive through the ball and throw it tighter. This also has hurt his accuracy with the football as he is unable to throw the ball in to tight windows. The combination of these variables will hurt Tebow, because at the next level athletic safeties won’t have to cheat down in to the box due to his running threat. Rather they can stay home, play center field, wait to read Tim’s elongated delivery and react to a ball that may flutter when his footwork is not sound. Tim’s accuracy and mechanics are not unfixable, but they will need time to develop, as he got away from some of the pro-Quarterback fundamentals in a spread offense and in his proclivity to run. With more athletic sure tacklers in the NFL, Tim will not be able to run as well without risking injury and he will have to improve his accuracy in traffic as team’s will likely force him to beat them with his arm.
Tim will likely have to alter his running style as well, in that he can not attempt to run over defensive ends, linebackers, and safeties in the NFL. He will have to slide, juke, or run out of bounds, and reduce the likelihood of injury as QB (whether starting or backup) is an important role to the team.
All this is not to say that Tim Tebow will not necessarily fail nor necessarily succeed at the NFL level. However, Tim will need to make marked improvements to become a capable NFL starter. Tim has the athletic frame, mindset, and overall ability to play at the next level. It is important that he gets the appropriate attention as a “raw” QB with great upside, so long as due diligence and work is put in, and he is not rushed to pay in his first season
If I were an NFL GM, I would definitely pass on Tim in the first round. I would probably pass on him in the 2nd round, unless I didn’t have other needs. However, if I were a playoff team looking to add a wrinkle in my offense and had a durable bona fide starter, I would definitely give Tim Tebow a look in the late 2nd or 3rd round. A team that may fit him (in addition to Jacksonville, who’s had a campaign to get him) is Philadelphia, if Michael Vick leaves. There is no reason why Tim can not run the same Wildcat plays that Vick has run this year for the Eagles, and the Eagles have struggled in short yardage this season.
While some people enjoy a little time off this time of year, Mariners President of Baseball Opperations and General Manager Jack Zduriencik is hard at work improving his franchise. He started the early signing speedster Chone Figgins from the rival Angels, and advanced with authority by trading for Cy-Young winner Cliff Lee. The Chone Figgins signing is huge because he is indicative of things to come for the Mariners. He fits the Jack Z’s regime ideals of versatility and hitting for average. Figgins, likely to be slotted at behind Ichiro, batting 2nd, will help the M’s because as struggled to fill this role last season, even slotting 250 hitting Russell Branyan in this spot to try and find a solution. Figgins attained a career high in walks last year, notching 101. The Mariners leader in walks was Griffey, with 63, and outside of that the team doesn’t have very many patient hitters. While he doesn’t provide much power, Figgins adds tremendous speed and good bat control behind Ichiro that could manufacture runs and good RBI opportunities for the middle of the lineup. He maintains strong defense in the infield. He will also provide an additional leadership type role in the clubhouse. Lastly his addition means a subsequent subtraction from the rival American League West Champion LA Angels.
The Cliff Lee deal is very intriguing in that in instantly give the M’s the best 1-2 punch in baseball, and one of the better all-around staffs depending on how the off-season unfolds. A Hernandez, Lee, Rowland Smith, Snell, Morrow rotation is tough to beat with the potential upside of the Snell and Morrow. Rick Adair should enjoy himself.
U.S.S. Mariners take is that one season of Cliff Lee is worth $25 million. If he leaves as a free agent after next season, the M's will be compensated with a couple of draft picks worth at least $5 million. The three prospects the M's are supposedly sending to Toronto are worth $13 million. Lee's salary next season is $8 million. This take seems to make the Mariners winners in that they are giving up 13 million in potential worth for 22 million in value. The Mariners are not giving up too much to acquire the ace in dealing Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez. All are considered good not great prospects; Keith Law describes all as “second-tier.” Aumont was a 2008 1st round pick that has participated for the Canadian National team. He has great potential, but a recent hip injury has had some scouts questioning if he can become a top of the line starter. Aumont likely seems headed to the bullpen in Philly. Tyson Gillies is a very quick outfield prospect. He participated in last year’s Futures game. Gillies, also a Canada native, will join Aumont on the Phillies. He could be a leadoff hitter eventually, but he is a double-A talent. Juan Ramirez is a young pitcher with electric stuff, but his questionable control and lanky build could likely move him to the bullpen eventually. It remains unlikely that the Mariners will be able to extend Cliff Lee at the end of the season, and in this case they likely will receive 2 1st round picks for him. If Lee is extended this move could have implication on a deal for Felix Hernandez. It remains to be seen whether it is a similar extension, or a similar trade
As vastly as the Mariners have improved from the end of the season, and a year ago they still seem like they are a major deal away. The Mariners seem to be pushing to be the favorite in a down A.L. West, while hoping to prove to young ace Felix Hernandez that they are serious about being contenders in years to come. It is interesting that the Mariners, who seemed to have interest in former Angels free agent starter John Lackey, made this deal shortly after Lackey signed with the Red Sox. It is difficult to tell if the Mariners truly had interest in Lackey, or just feigned interest and ensured that Lackey, who projects as an average #2 starter or great #3 starter, would be moved outside the division.
The next move seems to be in my opinion a Jose Lopez trade. While Lopez has been the 3rd best player on the Mariners over the past 3 seasons, his glove work and range at second base do not seem like a fit for the revamped Mariners. The Mariners have moved him to 1st base in some games, and have also mentioned the possibility of moving Figgins to 2nd base as well. However, this I believes worsens the value of Lopez as he would not be a premiere bat at 1st base. This combined with the fact that he is 2 years away from free agency (usually the best time to recoup value) and he is right handed bat with pop in a left handed park, could mean that Lopez has seen his last days in Seattle. While Lopez is a good bat, he is not a force in the middle of the lineup as power has been lacking in the Seattle offense. The organization is also looking to get athetic Matt Tuiassosopo more playing time on the big league level, and 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley will likely see time by 2011. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lopez and others package (Morrow, relievers, Halman).
Angels The Angels have lost Chone Figgins and starter John Lackey and will likely allow Vlad Guerrero to walk (something the free swinger hates doing). This isn’t all bad though it seems like the Angels will continue to reload and rebuild the farm. Brandon Wood is a power bat prospect that will likely replace Figgins at 3rd Base. They will also receive 1st round draft picks for both Figgins and Lackey.
Meanwhile, in free agency they added Yankees Hideki Matsui who will likely usurp DH from Vlad Guerrero. They also re-signed Matsui’s former Yankees teammate Bobby Abreu, to help protect Kendry Morales in the order.
Even with the loss of Lackey, the pitching rotation remains a strength of the Halos, anchored by Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir, and Joe Saunders. The 5th spot would have gone to Nick Adenhart before his untimely death, but it will likely be up for competition with 2nd year player Matt Palmer (11-2, 3.93) being the favorite.
The major questions remaining now, will be how will the Angels respond with the loss of 2 veteran leaders? And is there enough team speed or will the Angels try to alter their game plan? A loss of Figgins could move Erick Aybar to leadoff and/or increase playing time for Reggie Willits.
Let’s go down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ must-have checklist to success shall we:
1) A defense chalk full of play makers- James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, Casey Hampton, Lawrence Timmons, Ryan Clark, Brad Keisel, James Farrior….Check, (albeit minus one DYNAMIC playmaker in Troy Polamalu)
2) A gigantic, physical, mauling offensive line built to dominate the oppositions defenses in the run game- the 5 starters on the Steeler’s offensive line weigh an average of 323.8 lbs, not exactly built for the speed and agility of a spread offense….Check
3) A physical possession receiver who can block to help the run game and a versatile receiver with play maker/deep threat ability…Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes…Check
4) A franchise quarterback to manage the game and make all the throws….Roethlisberger…Check
5) A running back with a special blend of power and speed and an ability to grind between the tackles throughout the game...Mendenhall…Check
6) An overwhelming dedication to the running game...Steelers offense averaging 21 designed run plays/game...Missing
Shocking to say but the Steelers have officially fallen in love with the pass. While I understand getting the most of a $102 million quarterback investment, Pittsburgh’s decision to throw instead utilizing their traditional nasty smash-mouth run heavy offense has been their downfall. Pittsburgh has built their franchise around two factors, hitting opponents in the mouth until they cry with the run game, and giving opposing quarterbacks fits of happy-feet with their pressure heavy defense. This season, the Steelers have abandoned their run game, which has weakened both their offense and defense. Follow my logic here, when the Steelers run effectively, they both control the clock, and allow Big Ben to be a very intimidating play-action quarterback. The first factor being the catalyst to the second, allows Ben to go deep to Holmes, Wallace, Sweed (when he doesn’t drop it) or over the middle to a deceptively fast Heath Miller when safeties hesitate or bite on the run fake. All of this means that, the Steelers live on utilizing the run to set up the pass.
This offensive strategy helps put the opposition down early which, combined with the #1 rush defense in the NFL, forces the opponent into panicked pass heavy play-calling; allowing the Steelers’ defense to pin their ears back and rush the passer all game. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, as they get away the offense which their team is built for, they lose the ability to control the clock. Furthermore, as their offensive line is built for run blocking, not pass protection, opposing defenses are finding it easier to force the Steelers into offensive mistakes (as shown by the 8 sacks on Big Ben vs. Cleveland). This gives the opposition better field position, and keeps the scores close allowing the opponent to play a balanced offensive style making the Steelers’ pass rush less effective as Harrison and Woodley now have to worry about the run as well as getting a rush.
We have been in awe of the Steelers’ defense for what seems like decades; however, the more their offense becomes enamored with the pass, the more we find holes in that vaunted Steel Curtain. In recent weeks, those holes have been primarily in the secondary, as it has been picked apart by the likes of Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Cassell, and Joe Flacco. Without that ability to consistently pressure the quarterback, the Steelers’ linebackers have been forced into coverage instead of blitzing and Pittsburgh’s corners have been exposed. With the pressure no longer a guarantee, opposing teams can launch a more balanced attack, picking apart their coverage underneath and effectively running through a fatigued defense.
In summary, while the loss of Troy Polamalu is an incredible detriment to the ability of Pittsburgh’s defense, it is not his absence that has caused the downfall of the defending champion Steelers. Even with a healthy Polamalu, the Steelers must still return to their roots of a physical run-heavy offense, or face an off-season on the outside looking in.
-Suh is a dynamic game changer who will automatically help in both run and pass defense for the Browns. His size and strength make him a perfect 3-4 DE, and he will step in and be an immediate upgrade over incumbent Robarie Smith. While the Browns offense has many holes, upgrading the NFL’s last place run defense and 24th ranked pass defense can’t do anything other than help the franchise.
2. St. Louis- Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame
-In 2009 the Rams began rebuilding their offense by Drafting Jason Smith (LT, Baylor), the next piece to com is a franchise signal caller to replace aging and injury riddled Marc Bulger. Clausen, the most pro ready QB prospect, is more than capable of learning behind Bulger or handing off to Steven Jackson until he is ready to take over.
3. Tampa Bay- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
-This pick is too perfect to be true. My apologies to Sabby Piscitelli, but Berry is too great a prospect to pass up at this position. With the talent to be taken first overall, and having learned under Monte Kiffin during his junior season, Berry will immediately upgrade the Tampa Bay defense with his Ed Reed like ball-hawking ability.
4. Detroit- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
-Detroit has begun its franchise overhaul last season by picking Stafford and Pettigrew. The Lions must now take the next step by investing in an elite level prospect to protect Stafford’s blindside. Okung has the feet and agility to be a stellar LT, combine Okung’s pass blocking ability and 2008 1st rounder Gosder Cherilus’ mammoth size/run blocking ability and the Lions should have exciting bookends to their o-line for years to come.
5. Oakland- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
-Dunlap defines prototype physical specimen. His strength and quickness alone make him a top 10 pick. However, combine his physical ability with his massive build and 88 inch wingspan and you have an Al Davis dream draft pick. Furthermore, Dunlap will be able to learn under Richard Seymour and eventually replace 34 year old Greg Ellis.
6. Washington- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
-It was evident last offseason that the Redskins were not happy with the development of current signal caller Jason Campbell. While a LT is another desperate need for Washington, there are no prospects left worthy of a pick this high.
7. Kansas City- Ronaldo McClain, ILB, Alabama
-While Todd Hayley is an offensive head coach, he saw the value of a versatile MLB in Karlos Dansby. McClain is a rare combination of speed, instinct, and incredible size (6’3.5”, 255lbs). He will be an immediate upgrade over Demorrio Williams (a college DE at Nebraska, and is physically suited for OLB) or replace Texas product Derrick Johnson (who seems to be constantly in Hayley’s doghouse this season).
8. Buffalo- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
-McCoy has elite physical tools, and could very well go first overall to Cleveland, however in this case he falls into the ever so willing Bills. McCoy’s skill set works well in Buffalo’s 4-3 scheme as he can both penetrate to rush the passer and stand firm against the run. All-Pro Marcus Stroud is beginning to show his age, and Kyle Williams is solid yet unspectacular allowing for McCoy to step in day 1 and make a difference.
9. Seattle- Jake Locker, QB, Washington
-As much as Berry was a no-brainer to Tampa, Locker is to Seattle. A local product, Locker has incredible potential, however defines what it is to be unpolished. His talents make him a top 10 pick, however he is not ready to step in and start day 1 for an NFL franchise. The presence of Matt Hasselbeck will allow Seattle to sit locker and let him learn for a season while Hasselbeck plays out the last of his contract. Look for 2011 to be Locker’s year to lead the Hawks.
10. Denver (from Chicago)- Brian Price, DT/DE, UCLA
-Price has great potential to help shore up that recently leaky Bronco run defense. He has great physical tools, and would be stepping into a solid environment in Denver where he could develop behind Kenny Peterson until ready to supplant him at DE. Price has the potential to be great but is slightly raw coming out early.
11. San Francisco (from Carolina)- Taylor Mays, S, USC
-A local USC product, Mays is a top level physical specimen. At 6’3 and 236lbs Mays can almost -be considered a Tampa 2 OLB, however his 4.5 speed cries out safety. Mays lives and dies on the big hit and needs to work on his coverage instincts, however his freakish physical tools make him an early 1st rounder. The 49ers will be both upgrading over Michael Lewis at SS and installing fear into the hearts of NFC West receivers with this pick.
12. Tennessee- Derek Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
-Morgan’s motor and build make him a great fit as a 4-3 DE, which is exactly what the Titans need to revamp their pass defense. Kyle Vanden Bosch was a top level pass rusher, however his best years are behind him and he is a free agent at the end of the 09-10 season. Adding Morgan to the Titan’s defense will be a much needed shot in the arm to the pass rush,
13. New York Jets- Arthur Jones DT/DE, Syracuse
-The Jets don’t have many immediate needs on either side of the ball, however 3-4 DE is one place where the Jets can begin to prepare for the future. Marques Douglas is an adequate starting DE, however Arthur Jones can be a top level DE if he reaches his potential. Drafting Jones allows the Jets to prepare for the future while also keeping an eye on their current playoff aspirations.
14. San Francisco- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
-the 49ers capitalize on the mauling Williams at 14 to improve their o-line play. While Adam Snyder is a solid OT for San Fran, he is both injury prone, and best suited as a high level swing tackle. Williams gives SF a massive RT and continues their youth movement along their o-line allowing them to build towards the future. While Williams had a down senior season (along with all of the OU football team), he still was dominant enough to warrant a top 15 pick.
15. Houston- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
-Everyone knows that the Texans can light up the scoreboard with the best of them, however everyone also knows that their pass defense is less than spectacular. While Dunta Robinson is a great starting corner for the Texans, he is also a free agent at the end of the season and was none too pleased to be franchised last offseason. Assuming he moves onto greener pastures, Haden would fill in nicely alongside Jacques Reeves giving Houston a promising young tandem of corners.
16. Miami- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
-It’s no secret that the Miami Dolphins lack elite receiving options. Ted Ginn is shaping up as a bust (as most picks during the short lived Cam Cameron era are), Greg Camarillo/Brian Hartline can be classified as possession receivers, and Davone Bess is best suited for the slot. Dez Bryant has the ability to be an all-pro receiver with his speed and physical traits, and should compliment Chad Henne’s cannon of an arm giving Miami a dangerous young QB to WR duo for years to come.
17.Atlanta Falcons- Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
-They would like to trade up to nab Haden at CB, but OLB makes sense here with Boley leaving last year and an aging Mike Peterson
-Mt Cody is needed as Hampton ages. Not to mention the Steelers love to draft for the future.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars- Earl Thomas, S, Texas
-They smartly pass on Teabow in order to upgrade their pours pass defense. Sean Considine just does not cut it and Reggie Nelson deserves a better compliment.
22. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) - Charles Brown, OT, USC
-Former Tight End has good feet for Solari’s zone blocking system and he rarely gets beat.
23. Green Bay Packers- Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa
-Chad Clifton’s replacement is Chad Cliton minus the injuries
24. Philadelphia Eagles- Jason Pierre- Paul, DE, South Florida
-A ferocious Philly pass rush can always use an upgrade
25. Arizona Cardinals- Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
-Chike Okear and Bertrand Berry are old. Real Old.
26. New England Patriots- Jerry Hughes, DE/LB, TCU
-Pass rush is needed for an underachieving Patriots defense. Hughes is highly productive for the BCS bowl bound Horned Frogs.
-J.P Foschi is not quite a franchise TE, and Chase Coffman has been a constant healthy scratch for a reason. Gresham brings a game changer to the Bengals offense
28. San Diego Chargers- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
-LT is getting old (Yes we hate to admit it) and Sporles isn’t an every down back and it’d be a waste to franchise him again considering his mediocre production (and the unlikely but possible return of Shawne Merriman), also Spiller could be the next Chris Johnson.
29. Dallas Cowboys- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
-Hotel Flozell is old and penalized frequently. Anthony Davis is the best Jr OT.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss
-Pass rush specialist, will give them a nasty DE both in talent and in haircut
31. New Orleans Saints- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
-Sedrick Ellis injury showcased how much he means to that team and how thin the Saints are when he went down with an injury. Dan Williams is the fastest rising prospect.
32. Indianapolis Colts- Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
-Name the Colts outside LBs. . . “Spoon” is a tough leader and versatile to boot.
Round 2
1.Cleveland Browns- Jahvid Best, RB, California
2.St. Louis Rams- Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
3.Tampa Bay- Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
4.Detroit Lions- Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
5.Oakland Raiders- Selvish Capers, OT, West Virginia
