What We Learned and Who Fell/Why
Who fell?
Jimmy Clausen- Clausen’s personality is polarizing, in part because he doesn’t realize his ego. While there is some concern about his frame and athleticism, I don’t believe that it is the main reason that teams have passed on him at this point. I think the major issue is Clausen’s coaching, Clausen seems to take tips as peer advice and his upside seems limited. While he accurately described his reads as a QB, he did throw his WR under the bus. This kind of behavior will make receivers nonchalant on routes for a QB that doesn’t respect them. I think his upside is limited by his coaching in some respects, but he can be more accurate and improve his intangibiles in a veteran locker room.
(Minnesota, Buffalo, Oakland)
Taylor Mays- Last year Mays was considered a top 10 pick, but he returned to school believing he had a chance at another national championship and the money would always be there. . . He was wrong. USC failed to live up to hype and he was exposed in coverage, looking overaggressive at times and lost at others. This dropped his stock as in workouts and bowls he failed to ease any concerns about instincts or coverage ability. Mays needs a scheme that will let him play in the box, or force him to be disciplined as a deep safety.
(SF, SEA, PHI)
Carlos Dunlap- Dunlap fell after a mediocre season and a suspension after a suspicion of a DUI. This cost him his bowl game. Dunlap is very athletic and can be a good power end in a 4-3. However, his tape and rap sheet are big question marks.
(SEA, NO, CIN)
Colt McCoy- Colt McCoy had an outside shot of being a late 1st round pick, but he lacks size and deep arm strength. While considered a fall, it was not much of a shock that he was not snagged.
(Oak, BUF, Cle)
NFL Draft Day 1 Analysis
In celebration of the pcoming NFL Draft, the FSB has decided to release its final version of the Mock Draft for your reading pleasure!
The Bad Signings 1) Larry Johnson, Running Back, Washington Redskins (Signed 3 years $3.5MM, could reach $12MM)
Of course after I praise them earlier over a potentially strong signing for their franchise, I must curse them later for yet another potentially boneheaded Redskin free agent move. This signing would have been a showstopper a mere two seasons ago as Larry was still considered a top level halfback, however nowadays LJ is thought of as someone who lacks explosion/tackle breaking ability and brings boatloads of off field baggage. Already owning one aging runner in Clinton Portis, why bring in another when it is unlikely that their presence will improve your running game. While LJ’s contract is cheap (assuming his incentives are difficult to reach unless he is playing at a high level), he is still eating up a spot on the depth chart where the Redskins could use an explosive threat out of the backfield like Cal’s Javhid Best other such type complimentary runners.
2) Antwaan Randle-El, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers (Signed 3 years)
For a team with such a solid front office, this signing truly is a head scratcher. The Steelers have a very solid receiving core 1-3 with your brightest future possibly being your number 3 Mike Wallace who showed explosion and talent. The signing of Randle-El doesn’t seem to have much of a purpose than to run Limas Sweed out of town, however from recent speculative reports, it seems that Randle-El’s contract is for more than a 4th receiver is worth. While the FSB is not against brining in such a talent, we are a bit confused on why you would want to take snaps away from such a bright young offensive player for a veteran who is not nearly the game changer Wallace can be. Not to mention the Steelers announced the signing of Arnaz Battle the same day, who is more than capable of being a number four receiver. It seems like Randle-El was brought home to be a gadget player.
3) Justin Bannan, Defensive End, Denver Broncos (Signed 5 year, $22MM, $6.3MM signing bonus, $10.5MM Guaranteed)
This is not a knock on Justin Bannan in any way, the former Raven is the definition of hard working and may help bring more of an attitude to the Broncos front. However, the last thing the Broncos needed was to invest a large chunk of their finances to a 30+ year old defensive end, which Bannan is. The Denver defensive front desperately needed a youth injection last season as it faded terribly down the stretch last season and signing Bannan to a large starter-level contract while releasing Kenny Peterson is not the answer to the Broncos problems. While Bannan can be an effective starter as a 3-4 end, he is a better rotational end as he generates very little penetration and may wear down a bit against the run as Peterson did last season due to his age.
4) Jarvis Green, Defensive End, Denver Broncos (Signed 4 years, $20MM, $7MM Guaranteed)
The Broncos make yet another appearance on this list for the signing of yet another aging defensive end. While Jarvis Green can step in right away and perform as he played in the same defensive scheme in New England with Coach McDaniels, Jarvis Green is also 31 years old and has not been an effective pass rusher for the past two seasons! His recent performance has shown signs of decline and did not warrant such an expensive contract, furthermore, as stated above the last thing the Broncos need is an aging defensive end who will do little to help Elvis Dumervil jumpstart the lackluster Denver pass-rush. If the Broncos were a team which was a couple pieces away from being serious contenders this signing would have made sense, however plugging holes and getting older when you should be getting younger is never the strategy to go for unless you like long painful/inevitable rebuilding processes.
5) David Carr, Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers (Signed 2 years)
Well maybe someone within the SF front office believes that the team with the most number 1 overall draft picks has the best chance at winning in the NFL. While Carr had high promise coming out of Fresno State, a history of being constantly sacked and having his mechanics constantly tinkered with have created the shell of a QB that the 49ers acquired just recently. Carr has the talent to be a solid back up QB, however he is highly inconsistent which makes him difficult to trust behind injury prone Alex Smith. Furthermore, why bring in a question mark to back up Smith when you already have a consistent back-up who has proven that he can win with the 49ers roster?
The Good Signings
The Oakland Raiders
Yes, Yes I know this seems like quite a reach and shock to all FSB readers, but keep in mind, this article is assessing the brightness of the future of these franchises; it says nothing about being great at the moment. Keep an open mind while reading this article and you will understand how, if managed and coached correctly (which is understandably a large IF considering their current ownership/GM/lord in Al Davis), the Raiders could potentially be a contender in the NFL again relatively soon.
Because of the mass of negative media coverage surrounding the Oakland Raiders and their poor play, people seem to forget that their defense showed potential throughout the last season. While their rush defense was notably poor allowing 155.5 yards per game on the ground (good for 29th out of 32 in the league), their pass defense was a very impressive 7th overall in the NFL allowing a total of 206 yards per game through the air. While same say that this statistic is inflated due to the lack of ability to stop the run, I say it is a combination of that as well as the talent which the Raiders hold in their secondary.
Let us begin with the increasingly recognizable CB, Nnamdi Asomugha. Fortunately for the Raiders, Asomugha is a rare blend of speed and physicality which allows him to be one of not only the most complete, but also top overall corners in the NFL (I dare say the most complete corner before the incredible emergence of Darrell Revis last season). While Nnamdi is an incredible first round pick out of Cal, 30 year old Chris Johnson out of Louisville was equally impressive opposite Asomugha last season and was considered by some as a borderline Pro Bowl snub because of his high level of play. While the age of 30 is not exactly young for a corner, the Raiders have invested decently well in a stockpile of young speedy talent who have high upside such as 26 year old Stanford Routt and 24 year old John Holland out of Louisiana Tech.
On top of their dynamic corner tandem, the Raiders possess a nice group of young safeties at their disposal. At the FS slot the raiders rotate hard hitting Hiram Eugene and center fielder Michael Huff, while neither has been incredible, Huff showed his first round potential this past season with 59 tkls and 3 ints in a reserve safety role. However it is the SS position where the Raiders are well off as former CB Tyvon Branch out of UConn emerged last season as a top level safety. His season which included 124 tackles, 1 sack, 2ffs, and 8 passes defended showed nothing short of a miraculous transition from corner to safety. The Raiders really hit on this guy with the 100th pick in the draft, his blend of size and speed made him an incredible corner, however his inability to consistently stay square in man to make coverage forced his transition to what has ended up being his top position.
While the secondary traditionally is defined as corners and safeties, the Raider’s young linebacking tandem of Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison are so strong in coverage, that they must be placed into the secondary category. Howard (26 years old) logged 6 interceptions just one season ago and his elite speed for a linebacker (4.49 40 yard dash in the combine) allows him serious upside coverage. Morrison, while not quite as savvy in space as Howard, logged a 4 INT season just 2 seasons ago, and this year was not so shabby as he led the Raiders with 133 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Both of these linebackers offer high ceiling over their already high playing levels, however it will be up to the Raiders to realize this potential and to help them achieve this as I have already seen reports that the Raiders may allow Morrison to go free soon (As the disclaimer above stated, I am simply speaking on the talent which the Raiders possess, however I cannot speak to the ability of Al Davis to realize that talent and keep a hold of it).
While the Raiders have unlimited upside on the defensive side of the ball, their offensive side is where they have the most work to do. Their offensive line is in shambles as only Mario Henderson (LT) and Samson Satele are the only linemen offer any long-term potential. However Henderson lacks the footwork to become a viable LT, and Satele was released just the past season from the Dolphins because of his inability to move defenders off the ball in the run game. The Raiders do however offer extremely high potential in their impressive stable of halfbacks. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden are seemingly household names because of their famed collegiate careers, and Justin Fargas is gaining ground through his strong play during the past two seasons. While I feel Fargas will eventually be the odd man out of this trio because of this age (30 years old), Michael Bush’s incredible blend of size and speed make his ceiling limitless, and McFadden’s collegiate playmaking abilities make him a threat to hit a homerun with each touch he is given (if he ever unlocks it).
The Raider’s last positions of high upside are their TE and WR spots. TE Zach Miller out of Arizona State has displayed serious ability in the short to intermediate game and occasional deep ball, as shown by his leading the Raiders in receiving with 66 catches for 805 yards and 3 tds. His blend of average blocking but consistency as a receiver reminds us at the FSB of his fellow Sun Devil, Todd Heap who fits the bill as a top notch tight end (who has had his career unfortunately derailed by constant injuries). At the WR position, the Raiders have high upside in Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and in PR/KR Johnny Lee-Higgins. Murphy continually flashed in the pre-season as a rookie to watch last season, and throughout the regular season he did not disappoint as he hauled in 34 balls for 521 yards and 4 tds, with his best game coming against the Pittsburg Steelers to the tune of 4 rec for 128 yds and 2 tds. Schilens, the consensus number 1 receiver going into the last season was slowed by injury holding him to only 8 games, however he made a strong case to keep his position as he closed the season strong with 12 rec and 163 yards in the final two games of the season. In conclusion, the Raiders offer seriously high potential to whoever looks deep enough into their depth chart. If the described potential is ever unlocked, and a few critical pieces are added (mainly a QB and D/O line pieces) to the puzzle, the Oakland Raiders could be a force to be reckoned with for seasons to come.